AuditPoint Intelligence

Federal Contractors.

USASpending · SAM.gov Intelligence

Every significant federal vendor scored across revenue concentration, agency dependency, contract stability, and regulatory standing. Built from USASpending obligation records and SAM.gov exclusion data. Built for PE firms, lenders, and surety underwriters evaluating federal revenue risk.

159,091

Vendors scored

$3.86T

Obligations tracked

33M+

Award records

FY2021

History from

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The Data

Two federal datasets.
One exposure score.

USASpending publishes every federal contract obligation since 2008 — awarding agency, vendor, dollar amount, contract type, and period of performance. SAM.gov publishes the exclusions list: every vendor debarred, suspended, or proposed for debarment from federal business. Neither dataset produces a vendor risk score. AuditPoint ingests both, joins them at the entity level by UEI, and produces a single scored intelligence record per vendor.

The result: a complete federal revenue exposure profile for every significant federal contractor — covering dependency, agency concentration, contract structure, and regulatory standing — updated annually.

USASpending.gov — Contract Awards

Every federal contract obligation from FY2021 through FY2025. 33 million award records covering 159,091 distinct vendors. Fields include awarding agency, funding agency, action obligation, contract type (fixed-price, cost-reimbursable, T&M), NAICS code, and period of performance. The primary spine of the Federal Revenue Exposure Score.

Federal

SAM.gov — Exclusions Registry

All active debarments, suspensions, proposed debarments, and prohibition orders across all federal procurement programs. 167,617 records; 163 matched to vendors with active obligation histories — meaning the government paid them after exclusion, or related entities slipped through under different registrations.

Federal

Intelligence Signals

What the obligation data reveals.

Agency Concentration

94.1% avg top-agency share

The average federal vendor derives 94% of its obligations from a single awarding agency. Diversification across agencies is the exception, not the rule — making agency-level budget decisions a direct vendor revenue event.

USASpending · FY2021–FY2025

DOGE-Risk Exposure

11,202 vendors flagged

Vendors with more than 40% of their federal obligations concentrated in agencies under active budget review — USAID, Department of Education, EPA, AmeriCorps, Department of State. These vendors have structural revenue risk that balance sheets do not yet reflect.

USASpending · F-01.1 Model · June 2026

Contract Terminability

Cost-reimbursable risk

Fixed-price contracts carry legal termination costs and are harder to cancel mid-performance. Cost-reimbursable and T&M contracts can be stopped at the government's convenience with 30 days notice. Contract pricing type is an underweighted signal in vendor credit analysis.

USASpending · Contract Pricing Codes

Exclusion Status

163 active exclusions matched

163 vendors on the SAM.gov active exclusion list appear in the USASpending obligation record — meaning they have documented federal contract history despite active debarment or suspension. The government's own procurement controls are the source of this signal.

SAM.gov Exclusions · June 2026

Obligation Trend

Year-over-year trajectory

FY2024 to FY2025 obligation change per vendor. Vendors with sharply declining obligations heading into a budget contraction period are in double jeopardy — their structural exposure was already deteriorating before the current environment.

USASpending · FY2024–FY2025

Regulatory Standing

SAM exclusion cross-reference

Active debarment is a hard-cap on tier assignment regardless of financial performance. Proposed debarment — a legally distinct status — is also tracked and flagged as a forward risk indicator. Neither appears in commercial credit files.

SAM.gov Public Exclusions Registry

The Model

Federal Revenue
Exposure Score.

The F-01.1 model produces a composite score from 0–100 across four components. The score measures structural vulnerability of a vendor's federal revenue — not the vendor's financial condition, which is visible elsewhere. A vendor can be financially healthy and structurally exposed. That gap is the product.

Defense contractors, national laboratory operators, and VA healthcare vendors are scored within their structural peer group. Single-agency concentration in DoD, DOE, VA, and NASA is structurally mandated by the nature of those contracts and is not penalized the same way civilian agency concentration is.

STABLE

Score ≥ 70. Diversified agency spread, predominantly fixed-price contracts, no exclusion flags. 6,721 vendors — 4.2% of scored population.

WATCH

Score 50–69. Moderate concentration or contract structure concerns. Warrants monitoring in the current budget environment. 138,305 vendors — 86.9%.

EXPOSED

Score 30–49. High federal dependency with meaningful agency concentration. Revenue vulnerable to specific budget decisions. 13,731 vendors — 8.6%.

CRITICAL

Score < 30 or active exclusion. Extreme concentration in at-risk agencies, near-total federal dependency, or confirmed debarment. 334 vendors — 0.2%.

F-01.1 is an AuditPoint-derived composite score. It is not an official government designation and does not constitute a legal finding. All component data is sourced from USASpending.gov and SAM.gov — both public federal databases. Methodology is fully disclosed at auditpoint.ai/methodology.

Federal Dependency

Total obligation volume and trend. Higher concentration of revenue in federal contracts — and declining trend — indicates greater structural exposure to budget decisions. Adjusted for known commercial entities where federal revenue is incidental.

35%

Agency Concentration

Herfindahl-Hirschman Index across awarding agencies. Single-agency dependency in civilian budget-constrained agencies (USAID, Education, EPA, State) scores worse than diversified portfolios. Defense, VA, DOE, and NASA concentration treated separately given structural mandates.

30%

Contract Stability

Mix of contract pricing types weighted by obligation dollars. Fixed-price contracts have legal termination protections. Cost-reimbursable and T&M contracts are terminable for convenience with 30 days notice. IDIQ vehicles with no guaranteed minimums score worst.

20%

Regulatory Standing

SAM.gov exclusion status. Active debarment is a hard-cap on tier: any vendor with active debarment scores CRITICAL regardless of other components. Proposed debarment applies a significant penalty. Resolved past exclusions are noted but not penalized at full weight.

15%

Sample Findings

What the data shows.

Three findings from the FY2021–FY2025 obligation record. All figures queried directly from the live database. All sources citable to federal primary records.

USASpending · USAID Exposure

$7.5B

Chemonics International holds $7.5 billion in five-year federal obligations — 100% from a single agency now under existential budget pressure. CRITICAL tier. DOGE-risk flag active.

USASpending.gov · FY2021–FY2025 · F-01.1 Model · June 2026

SAM.gov · Exclusion Paradox

163

163 vendors on the SAM.gov active exclusion list have documented federal contract obligation history — meaning active debarment or suspension did not prevent them from appearing in the USASpending award record.

SAM.gov Exclusions · USASpending Awards · June 2026

USASpending · DOGE Risk

11,202

11,202 vendors have more than 40% of their federal obligations concentrated in agencies under active budget review — USAID, Education, EPA, State, AmeriCorps. Their combined five-year obligation base: $679 billion.

USASpending.gov · F-01.1 Model · June 2026

Who Uses This

Built for the institutions evaluating contractors from the outside.

Private Equity

Government Services Diligence

PE firms acquiring or evaluating government services companies need to understand which portion of revenue is structurally at risk — and which agencies it depends on. A company reporting 20% federal revenue concentration may have 80% of that concentration in a single agency that is actively being restructured.

What is this company's true federal revenue exposure by agency?

Which portion of the backlog is fixed-price vs. terminable?

Does the vendor or any subsidiary appear on the SAM exclusion list?

Commercial Lenders

Government Contractor Credit

Banks and specialty lenders with government contractor borrowers are evaluating credit facilities against revenue bases that may be materially impaired by agency-level budget decisions. The FRE Score gives lenders a pre-decision view of structural revenue risk that financial statements alone do not surface.

Is this borrower's federal revenue concentrated in a budget-constrained agency?

What is the YoY obligation trend — expanding or contracting?

How much of the contract base is terminable at convenience?

Surety Underwriters

Contract Backlog Risk

Surety underwriters pricing performance and payment bonds need to assess whether the contract backlog behind the bond is structurally stable. A contractor bonded on a cost-reimbursable USAID task order faces different termination risk than one bonded on a firm-fixed-price DoD production contract.

What is the agency mix and concentration behind this contractor's backlog?

What share of bonded contracts are fixed-price vs. cost-type?

Is this contractor registered and in good standing in SAM.gov?

Federal Contractors.

Two federal datasets.One exposure score.

What the obligation data reveals.

Federal RevenueExposure Score.

What the data shows.

Built for the institutions evaluating contractors from the outside.

The federal revenue a balance sheet doesn't show.

Two federal datasets.
One exposure score.

Federal Revenue
Exposure Score.